a. Trump was seen as a strong leader, a tough negotiator, though somewhat unpredictable.
1) Adversaries were too afraid or unsure to try to take advantage
- North Korea: In June, 2018, when Trump met with Kim Jong Un, it marked the first-ever meeting between leaders of North Korea and the United States. They had several other meetings, and for a time, an almost cordial relationship or at least one of mutual respect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong_Un - China: Trump was the first US president to be given a state dinner in the Forbidden City. Trump began his term by launching the trade war with China he had promised on the campaign trail. The Department of Justice launched its China Initiative, an effort to disrupt China’s covert activities in the U.S. In 2020, the Trump administration took at least 210 public actions related to China that spanned at least 10 departments, demonstrating what the administration calls a “whole-of-government” strategy. He proved you can impose economic costs on China without the world falling apart.
https://www.axios.com/2021/01/19/trump-china-policy-special-report
2) Trump negotiated for what was right and best for the U.S.
- He threatened to withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if they did not start paying their fair share of the expense. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement to combat climate change. In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO), which he accused of absolving China from responsibility for the pandemic.
- In May 2018, the Trump administration announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal due to its disadvantage to the U.S. Trump, along with many Republicans, had long disapproved of the agreement, which many conservatives believed made excessive and unwise concessions to Iran and risked the security of Israel. In November 2018, the United States reimposed all economic sanctions that had previously been in effect on Iran.
- In December 2017, in a move hailed by the conservative government of Israel, Trump announced that the United States would recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital city. In May 2018, the United States officially opened a new embassy in Jerusalem. Trump also pursued a peace plan (deals brokered by son-in-law Jared Kushner—known collectively as the Abraham Accords) whereby the governments of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain would normalize diplomatic relations with Israel. (A first ever agreement between Israel and its neighbors!)
https://millercenter.org/president/trump/foreign-affairs - Under pressure from President Trump’s tariffs threat, Mexico reached a deal with the United States on June 7 to step up immigration enforcement and to take in more migrants waiting for their U.S. asylum hearings (Remain in Mexico agreement).
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/13/740009105/how-mexico-beefs-up-immigration-enforcement-to-meet-trumps-terms
b. Biden—preferred by many world leaders as more predictable and less demanding.
- Biden quickly reversed most of the actions taken by Trump. Though much of Europe breathed a sigh of relief, it may not have been in America’s best interest.
- Afghanistan debacle: The conclusion was clear around the world, “Don’t count on the U.S. or anything they tell you. You’ll get left in the lurch!”
- Europe: “Europeans love Biden, but they don’t think the U.S. will come back to the fore as a world leader. Most believe that the U.S. political system is broken, that China will be more powerful than the U.S., and that Washington will not defend them.”
https://ecfr.eu/paris/publication/la-puissance-americaine-en-crise-comment-les-europeens-voient-lamerique-de-biden/ - U.S. Power in Crisis: How Europeans See Biden’s America—The United States is already the world’s most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem regardless of who wins.
https://www.lapresse.ca/international/etats-unis/2024-01-08/presidentielle-2024/un-risque-pour-la-planete-dans-tous-les-cas-selon-un-cabinet-d-etudes.php - Russia: The perception of a superpower in decline seemed to confirm Putin’s belief the U.S. lacked the stomach or muscle to stand in his way in Ukraine. And with the U.S. now having to buy petroleum products from Russia, they had the money to launch their invasion.
(This is crazy! How did this happen in such a short time? See How Did We Get Here?)